The German population is shrinking and aging. At the end of 2021, there were still just under 83 million people living in Germany, roughly the same number as in 2020 and 2019, due to a higher death rate than birth rate in 2021 (with immigration making up the difference).
In 2060, there will be only 74 to 83 million inhabitants, the Federal Statistical Office predicts in a report. The causes of the population decline, it said, are the drop in birth rates and the increase in deaths. The birth deficit could no longer be compensated for by increased immigration from abroad, according to the assessment. Even rising life expectancy and a higher number of children per woman could not prevent the population decline. The experts estimate that the decline can no longer be halted.
Aging is reflected in particular in the numbers of very old people. According to the population projections of the Federal Statistical Office, the number of people in Germany aged 80 or older will rise from 4.3 million to 10.2 million between 2011 and 2050. In fifty years, around 14 percent of the population – that’s one in seven – will be 80 or older.
Austria and Switzerland: growth and aging
In Austria, the population is expected to grow steadily by the end of the century, from around nine million at present (2022) to 9.63 million in 2050 and 10.07 million in 2100, according to Statistics Austria forecasts. The increase is expected to be driven primarily by immigration.
According to the Swiss Federal Statistical Office, 8.69 million people lived in Switzerland in 2020. In 2050, there will be an estimated 10.44 million. In the process, the number of people aged 65 or older will increase from 1.64 million to 2.67 million. The number of people over 80 will even more than double (from 0.46 million to 1.11 million), according to the forecast.
For the 20- to 64-year-old age group, a slight increase from 5.31 million to 5.75 million is forecast for this period.
Care – the statistics
What does the shrinking and aging of the population in Germany mean for the future care situation? Demographic change will lead to a shortage of nursing staff: In 2025, there will be a shortage of around 152,000 employees in nursing professions to care for those in need of care, according to model calculations by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) and the Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (BIBB).
- There were 4.1 million people in need of long-term care in 2019 – up 20.9 percent (713,000) from 2017.
- The majority (62 percent) were women.
- Eighty percent of those needing long-term care were 65 and older; 34 percent were older than 85.
- Eighty percent (3.31 million) of those needing care were cared for at home. Most (2.33 million) were cared for by relatives alone, an increase of 27.5 percent (0.713 million) compared with 2017. Together with care services (outpatient), 0.98 million were cared for, 18.4 percent (0.153 million) more than in 2017.
- Fully inpatient permanent care in nursing homes was received by a total of 20 percent (0.82 million) of those in need of care. The number of full inpatient permanent care recipients thus increased by 21 percent compared to 2017.
Experts estimate that the total number of people requiring care in Austria could rise to around 549,600 by 2050. This means that – as in Germany – more staff will be needed. According to one study, there will be an additional need for around 75,500 nursing and care staff by 2030.
In Switzerland, the aging of the population is estimated to increase the need for old-age and long-term care by more than half (56 percent) by 2040. This will be particularly challenging for nursing homes, which will need more than 54,300 additional long-term beds by 2040. The number of people dependent on Spitex care will increase by almost 102,000. This represents an increase of 52 percent. The number of people with Spitex care will also increase by more than half (by about 47,000 people, or 54 percent).
